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KSAT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
38%
ICON
38%
AIFS
17%
EPS
12%
WN2
10%
Consensus
20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 24.0¢Risks 24.00u
VS
WN2NO 76.0¢Risks 76.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +76.00u · WN2 −76.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.5% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 38.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00IFS HRES: 38.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 38.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 38.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 38.1% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00IFS HRES: 38.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 38.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00IFS HRES: 38.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS HRES: 38.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:0018.3%20.8%12.4%35.5%50.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:0018.3%20.8%14.1%35.5%50.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:0018.3%20.8%14.1%35.5%50.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:0018.3%20.8%14.1%35.5%50.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:0018.3%20.8%14.1%35.5%50.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:0015.9%20.8%14.1%38.1%37.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0015.9%20.8%14.1%38.1%37.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:0015.9%20.8%14.1%38.1%37.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0015.9%20.8%14.1%38.1%37.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:0015.9%10.9%10.0%38.1%37.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:0015.9%10.9%10.0%38.1%37.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:0015.9%10.9%10.0%38.1%37.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:0015.9%10.9%10.0%38.1%37.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:0017.3%11.5%9.9%38.1%37.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%89.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
IFS HRES38%86.5°F6.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON38%86.3°F7.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend25%87.0°F2.2°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
AIFS Single17%83.4°F5.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble12%85.5°F2.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 210%82.5°F4.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261024-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 89°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗