KSAT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

45%

39%

37%

32%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 42.4¢Risks 42.40u

ICONNO 57.6¢Risks 57.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +57.60u · ICON −57.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	34.6%	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	7.6%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	0.6%	7.2%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	5.2%	8.2%	1.1%	—	25.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	40.6%	57.3%	38.5%	10.6%	24.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	20.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	84.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	83.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	82.8°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	82.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	82.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	78.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261026-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗