KSAT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

45%

39%

37%

32%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 42.4¢Risks 42.40u

ICONNO 57.6¢Risks 57.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +57.60u · ICON −57.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00	42.4%	38.6%	37.7%	27.3%	15.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	42.4%	38.6%	37.7%	27.3%	15.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	42.4%	38.6%	37.7%	27.3%	15.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	47.2%	38.6%	37.7%	27.3%	15.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	47.2%	38.6%	37.7%	27.2%	15.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	47.2%	37.4%	37.7%	27.2%	15.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	47.2%	37.4%	37.7%	27.2%	15.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	47.2%	37.4%	37.7%	27.2%	15.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	47.2%	37.4%	46.1%	27.2%	15.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	47.2%	37.4%	46.1%	27.2%	15.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:12+00:00	47.2%	37.4%	46.1%	27.2%	15.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	51.4%	37.4%	46.1%	52.5%	32.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	51.4%	37.4%	46.1%	52.5%	32.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	51.4%	37.4%	46.1%	52.5%	32.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	51.4%	37.4%	46.1%	52.5%	32.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	51.4%	37.4%	46.1%	52.5%	32.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	51.4%	37.4%	39.2%	52.5%	32.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:03+00:00	51.4%	37.4%	39.2%	52.5%	32.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	51.4%	37.4%	39.2%	52.5%	32.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	45.1%	37.4%	39.2%	52.5%	32.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	45.1%	37.4%	39.2%	52.5%	32.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	45.1%	37.4%	39.2%	52.5%	32.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	84.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	83.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	82.8°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	82.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	82.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	78.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261026-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗