KSEA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

90%

83%

73%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.0¢Risks 84.05u

EPSNO 15.9¢Risks 15.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.95u · EPS −15.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	17.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	14.4%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	0.1%	31.8%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	48.6%	44.4%	17.1%	—	40.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	82.5%	60.1%	82.0%	—	60.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	82.6%	64.2%	73.0%	—	68.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	0.2%	79.4%	83.7%	—	83.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.9%	91.3%	86.7%	90.3%	—	82.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	3.8%	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	90.3%	79.2%	91.0%	—	85.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	92.2%	83.4%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	94.5%	84.0%	92.1%	—	85.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	94.7%	86.3%	—	—	89.6%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	95.8%	85.3%	94.1%	—	94.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	95.8%	91.6%	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	92.9%	92.2%	93.9%	—	93.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	92.8%	96.5%	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	96.2%	97.2%	94.1%	—	96.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	95.2%	96.5%	0.2%	—	96.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	97.8%	96.5%	91.0%	74.9%	96.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	97.3%	97.3%	89.8%	—	97.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	93.3%	98.3%	87.6%	62.3%	97.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	93.2%	98.4%	87.8%	—	97.6%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	95.4%	96.3%	88.7%	65.7%	96.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	93.3%	97.7%	81.8%	—	97.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	96.3%	97.7%	86.2%	54.3%	99.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	98.0%	99.2%	93.0%	—	98.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.7%	96.3%	99.8%	83.9%	65.4%	98.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	92.7%	99.9%	85.0%	—	99.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	75.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0024
ICON	94%	77.6°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0037
IFS HRES	90%	75.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0100
AIFS Single	83%	73.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0303
IFS Ensemble	73%	72.2°F	6.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0729
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.1936
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261016-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 11 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗