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KSEA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
95%
ICON
94%
HRES
90%
AIFS
83%
EPS
73%
Consensus
84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 84.0¢Risks 84.05u
VS
EPSNO 15.9¢Risks 15.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.95u · EPS −15.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 85.1% · 2026-10-11T15:12:09+00:00AIFS Single: 85.1% · 2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00AIFS Single: 85.1% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00AIFS Single: 85.1% · 2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00AIFS Single: 85.1% · 2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00AIFS Single: 85.1% · 2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-11T15:12:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-11T15:12:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.1% · 2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.1% · 2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.1% · 2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.1% · 2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.1% · 2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.1% · 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T15:12:09+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-11T15:12:09+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:0010-11 15:1210-11 21:1310-12 03:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T15:12:09+00:0085.1%73.0%96.8%92.2%88.5%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:0085.1%73.0%96.8%92.2%88.5%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:0085.1%73.0%96.8%92.2%88.5%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:0085.1%73.0%95.8%92.2%88.5%
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:0085.1%73.0%95.8%92.2%88.5%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:0085.1%73.0%95.8%92.2%88.5%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:0083.6%73.0%95.8%90.0%93.9%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:0083.6%73.0%95.8%90.0%93.9%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:0083.6%73.0%95.8%90.0%93.9%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:0083.6%73.0%95.8%90.0%93.9%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:0083.6%73.0%95.8%90.0%93.9%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:0083.6%73.0%95.1%90.0%93.9%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:0083.6%73.0%95.1%90.0%93.9%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:0083.6%73.0%95.1%90.0%93.9%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:0082.6%73.0%95.1%90.0%93.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:0082.6%73.0%95.1%90.0%93.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:0082.6%73.0%95.1%90.0%93.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 295%75.2°F4.1°F2026-10-11 12:000.0024
ICON94%77.6°F5.9°F2026-10-11 12:000.0037
IFS HRES90%75.9°F5.8°F2026-10-11 12:000.0100
AIFS Single83%73.1°F4.9°F2026-10-11 18:000.0303
IFS Ensemble73%72.2°F6.0°F2026-10-11 00:000.0729
National Blend56%69.0°F3.3°F2026-10-11 06:000.1936
NWS forecast54%69.0°F5.1°F2026-10-11 14:000.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261016-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 11 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗