KSEA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

70%

70%

70%

37%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 68.3¢Risks 68.30u

ICONNO 31.7¢Risks 31.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.70u · ICON −31.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	9.0%	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	74.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	67.0%	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	77.4%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	92.3%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.4%	62.4%	85.5%	79.6%	—	47.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	94.3%	70.3%	—	53.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	71.1%	65.6%	59.1%	—	50.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	69.8%	83.2%	88.1%	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	64.7%	43.4%	74.2%	—	52.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	44.0%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	77.2%	46.5%	55.2%	—	49.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	69.8%	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	51.8%	77.7%	86.1%	—	51.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	72.4%	85.2%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	77.5%	73.7%	74.5%	—	49.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	68.3%	77.4%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	71.5%	83.0%	52.1%	—	47.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	52.1%	81.0%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	58.7%	58.7%	63.9%	2.3%	53.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	63.3%	35.7%	10.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	60.4%	46.5%	47.7%	—	43.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	48.8%	85.5%	57.2%	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	62.3%	46.3%	50.0%	64.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	51.3%	60.2%	50.0%	—	44.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	51.3%	43.3%	54.0%	56.7%	43.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	54.2%	52.8%	51.4%	—	40.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	69.5%	48.5%	52.9%	38.6%	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	76.4%	53.0%	38.1%	—	41.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	62.4%	15.2%	45.3%	46.8%	31.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	61.4%	16.0%	58.2%	—	30.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
IFS HRES	70%	63.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0870
AIFS Single	70%	63.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0882
WeatherNext 2	70%	63.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0918
National Blend	62%	62.0°F	1.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1406
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
ICON	37%	60.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4007

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗