KSEA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

70%

70%

70%

37%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 68.3¢Risks 68.30u

ICONNO 31.7¢Risks 31.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.70u · ICON −31.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:25+00:00	76.8%	99.8%	64.3%	82.1%	77.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	76.8%	99.8%	64.3%	82.1%	77.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	76.8%	99.8%	62.5%	82.1%	77.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	76.8%	99.8%	62.5%	82.1%	77.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	76.8%	99.8%	62.5%	82.1%	77.3%
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00	75.6%	99.8%	62.5%	69.1%	85.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	75.6%	99.8%	62.5%	69.1%	85.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	75.6%	99.8%	62.5%	69.1%	85.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	75.6%	99.8%	62.5%	69.1%	85.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	75.6%	99.8%	62.5%	69.1%	85.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	75.6%	99.7%	60.6%	69.1%	85.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	75.6%	99.7%	60.6%	69.1%	85.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	75.6%	99.7%	60.6%	69.1%	85.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	78.9%	99.7%	60.6%	69.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	78.9%	99.7%	60.6%	69.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	78.9%	99.7%	60.6%	69.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	78.9%	99.7%	60.6%	69.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	78.9%	99.7%	68.6%	69.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	78.9%	99.7%	68.6%	69.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	78.9%	99.7%	68.6%	69.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	78.9%	99.7%	68.6%	69.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	75.7%	99.7%	68.6%	69.1%	64.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	75.7%	99.7%	68.6%	69.1%	64.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	75.7%	99.7%	68.6%	69.1%	64.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	75.7%	99.7%	68.6%	69.1%	64.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	75.7%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	64.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	75.7%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	64.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	75.7%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	64.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	76.3%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	64.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	76.3%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	64.6%
2026-10-14T03:00:06+00:00	76.3%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	64.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	76.3%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	64.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	76.3%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	64.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	76.3%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	64.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	76.3%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	64.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	76.3%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	64.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	77.9%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	83.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	77.9%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	83.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	77.9%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	83.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	77.9%	99.7%	60.6%	58.7%	83.1%
2026-10-14T10:34:37+00:00	77.9%	99.7%	60.6%	74.2%	83.1%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	77.9%	99.9%	69.3%	74.2%	83.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	77.9%	99.9%	69.3%	74.2%	83.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	77.9%	99.9%	69.3%	74.2%	83.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	76.5%	99.9%	69.3%	74.2%	83.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	76.5%	99.9%	69.3%	74.2%	83.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	76.5%	99.9%	69.3%	74.2%	83.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	76.5%	99.9%	69.3%	74.2%	83.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	76.5%	99.9%	69.3%	74.2%	83.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	76.5%	99.9%	68.3%	74.2%	83.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	76.5%	99.9%	68.3%	74.2%	83.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	76.5%	99.9%	68.3%	74.2%	83.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	75.8%	99.9%	68.3%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	75.8%	99.9%	68.3%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	75.8%	99.9%	68.3%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	75.8%	99.9%	68.3%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	75.8%	99.9%	68.3%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	75.8%	99.9%	62.8%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	75.8%	99.9%	62.8%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	75.8%	99.9%	62.8%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	77.2%	99.9%	62.8%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	77.2%	99.9%	62.8%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	77.2%	99.9%	62.8%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	77.2%	99.9%	62.8%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	77.2%	99.9%	62.8%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	77.2%	99.9%	69.3%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	77.2%	99.9%	69.3%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	77.2%	99.9%	69.3%	72.7%	76.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00	77.6%	99.9%	69.3%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	77.6%	99.9%	69.3%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	77.6%	99.9%	69.3%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	77.6%	99.9%	69.3%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	77.6%	99.9%	69.3%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	77.6%	99.9%	71.9%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	77.6%	99.9%	71.9%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	77.6%	99.9%	71.9%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	76.9%	99.9%	71.9%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	76.9%	99.9%	71.9%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	76.9%	99.9%	71.9%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	74.5%	99.9%	74.3%	64.7%	46.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	74.5%	99.9%	74.3%	64.7%	46.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	74.5%	99.9%	74.3%	64.7%	46.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	74.5%	99.9%	70.9%	64.7%	46.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	74.5%	99.9%	70.9%	64.7%	46.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	74.5%	99.9%	70.9%	64.7%	46.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	71.1%	99.9%	70.9%	64.7%	36.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	71.1%	99.9%	70.9%	64.7%	36.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	71.1%	99.9%	70.9%	64.7%	36.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	71.1%	99.9%	70.9%	64.7%	36.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	71.1%	99.9%	70.9%	70.5%	36.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	71.1%	99.9%	66.0%	70.5%	36.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	71.1%	99.9%	66.0%	70.5%	36.7%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	71.1%	99.9%	66.0%	70.5%	36.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	70.3%	99.9%	66.0%	70.5%	36.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	70.3%	99.9%	66.0%	70.5%	36.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	70.3%	99.9%	66.0%	70.5%	36.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	70.3%	99.9%	66.0%	70.5%	36.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	70.3%	99.9%	66.0%	70.5%	36.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	70.3%	99.9%	69.7%	70.5%	36.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	70.3%	99.9%	69.7%	70.5%	36.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	70.3%	99.9%	69.7%	70.5%	36.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
IFS HRES	70%	63.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0870
AIFS Single	70%	63.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0882
WeatherNext 2	70%	63.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0918
National Blend	62%	62.0°F	1.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1406
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
ICON	37%	60.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4007

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗