KSEA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

23%

21%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.60u

ICONNO 49.4¢Risks 49.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.40u · ICON −49.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	1.9%	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	36.4%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	47.4%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	71.8%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	28.6%	57.0%	47.9%	—	17.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	74.6%	35.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	34.4%	28.9%	23.4%	—	17.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	31.6%	48.4%	57.1%	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	25.1%	11.2%	34.5%	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	11.1%	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	36.3%	11.8%	16.7%	—	13.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	27.1%	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	13.4%	34.7%	47.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	27.6%	44.3%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	32.1%	27.9%	28.7%	—	10.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	21.9%	30.8%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	23.5%	36.9%	10.8%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	10.1%	32.6%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	12.5%	12.5%	15.5%	0.0%	9.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	14.1%	3.8%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	11.6%	6.1%	6.5%	—	5.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	6.2%	32.5%	9.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	10.6%	4.9%	5.9%	11.8%	4.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	5.6%	8.7%	5.3%	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	5.0%	3.2%	5.7%	6.5%	3.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	5.0%	4.7%	4.3%	—	2.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	9.5%	3.2%	4.0%	1.8%	1.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	12.0%	3.4%	1.4%	—	1.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.8%	0.1%	1.8%	2.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.7%	0.1%	3.1%	—	0.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	74.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.9448
AIFS Single	23%	63.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0534
IFS HRES	21%	63.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0441
WeatherNext 2	12%	63.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0132
ICON	4%	60.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0016
NWS forecast	2%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0003
National Blend	<1%	62.0°F	1.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261017-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 67°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗