KSEA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

23%

21%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.60u

ICONNO 49.4¢Risks 49.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.40u · ICON −49.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:28:03+00:00	15.7%	68.7%	42.8%	19.7%	55.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00	15.7%	68.7%	31.3%	19.7%	55.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00	15.7%	68.7%	31.3%	19.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	15.7%	68.7%	31.3%	19.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T01:29:04+00:00	22.0%	68.7%	31.3%	19.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	22.0%	68.7%	31.3%	19.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	22.0%	68.7%	31.3%	19.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T03:45:23+00:00	22.0%	68.7%	31.3%	19.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00	22.0%	68.7%	31.3%	19.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00	22.0%	68.7%	32.0%	19.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T06:01:18+00:00	22.0%	68.7%	32.0%	19.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00	22.0%	68.7%	32.0%	19.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T07:32:38+00:00	42.5%	68.7%	32.0%	30.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	42.5%	68.7%	32.0%	30.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	42.5%	68.7%	32.0%	30.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	42.5%	68.7%	32.0%	30.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T10:34:18+00:00	42.5%	68.7%	32.0%	30.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T11:20:13+00:00	42.5%	87.1%	32.9%	30.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	42.5%	87.1%	32.9%	30.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	42.5%	87.1%	32.9%	30.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	44.7%	87.1%	32.9%	30.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	44.0%	86.8%	33.0%	30.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T15:12:10+00:00	44.0%	86.8%	33.0%	30.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	44.0%	86.8%	33.0%	30.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	44.0%	86.8%	33.0%	30.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	44.0%	86.8%	30.6%	30.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	44.0%	86.8%	30.6%	30.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	44.0%	86.8%	30.6%	30.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	29.2%	86.8%	30.6%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	29.2%	86.8%	30.6%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	29.2%	86.8%	30.6%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	29.2%	86.8%	30.6%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	29.2%	86.8%	30.6%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	29.2%	86.8%	20.8%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	29.2%	86.8%	20.8%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	29.2%	86.8%	20.8%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	33.2%	86.8%	20.8%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	33.2%	86.8%	20.8%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	33.2%	86.8%	20.8%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-12T04:01:58+00:00	33.2%	86.8%	20.8%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	33.2%	86.8%	20.8%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	33.2%	86.8%	20.8%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	33.2%	86.8%	20.8%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	33.2%	86.8%	20.8%	30.7%	57.9%
2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00	36.4%	86.8%	20.8%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	36.4%	86.8%	20.8%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	36.4%	86.8%	20.8%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	36.4%	86.8%	20.8%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	36.4%	86.8%	20.8%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00	36.4%	86.8%	13.4%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	36.4%	94.9%	13.4%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	36.4%	94.9%	13.4%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00	31.2%	94.9%	13.4%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	31.2%	94.9%	13.5%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	31.2%	94.9%	13.5%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	31.2%	95.3%	13.5%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	31.2%	95.3%	13.5%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	31.2%	95.3%	15.7%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	31.2%	95.3%	15.7%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	31.2%	95.3%	15.7%	41.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	34.9%	95.3%	15.7%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	34.9%	95.3%	15.7%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	34.9%	95.3%	15.7%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	34.9%	95.3%	15.7%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	34.9%	95.3%	19.5%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	34.9%	95.3%	19.5%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	34.9%	95.3%	19.5%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	34.9%	95.3%	19.5%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	38.8%	95.3%	19.5%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	38.8%	95.3%	19.5%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	38.8%	95.3%	19.5%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-13T04:16:26+00:00	38.8%	95.3%	19.5%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	38.8%	95.3%	19.5%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	38.8%	95.3%	18.2%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	38.8%	95.3%	18.2%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	38.8%	95.3%	18.2%	52.1%	45.9%
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	18.2%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	18.2%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	18.2%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	18.2%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	18.2%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	14.2%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	14.2%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	14.2%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	38.9%	95.3%	14.1%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	38.9%	95.3%	14.1%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	38.9%	95.3%	14.1%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	38.9%	95.3%	14.1%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	38.9%	95.3%	19.5%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	38.9%	95.3%	19.5%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	38.9%	95.3%	19.5%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	38.9%	95.3%	19.5%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	19.5%	30.9%	25.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	19.5%	30.9%	25.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	19.5%	30.9%	25.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	19.5%	30.9%	25.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	25.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	34.8%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	35.6%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	35.6%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T03:00:06+00:00	35.6%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	35.6%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	35.6%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	35.6%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	35.6%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	35.6%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	34.6%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	38.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	34.6%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	38.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	34.6%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	38.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	34.6%	95.3%	14.1%	21.8%	38.1%
2026-10-14T10:34:37+00:00	34.6%	95.3%	14.1%	31.9%	38.1%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	34.6%	97.0%	16.4%	31.9%	38.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	34.6%	97.0%	16.4%	31.9%	38.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	34.6%	97.0%	16.4%	31.9%	38.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	32.9%	97.0%	16.4%	31.9%	38.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	32.9%	96.9%	16.4%	31.9%	38.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	32.9%	97.0%	16.4%	31.9%	38.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	32.9%	97.0%	16.4%	31.9%	38.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	32.9%	97.0%	16.4%	31.9%	38.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	32.9%	97.0%	15.7%	31.9%	38.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	32.9%	97.0%	15.7%	31.9%	38.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	32.9%	97.0%	15.7%	31.9%	38.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	15.7%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	15.7%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	15.7%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	15.7%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	15.7%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	12.4%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	12.4%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	12.4%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	33.7%	97.0%	12.4%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	33.7%	97.0%	12.4%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	33.7%	97.0%	12.4%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	33.7%	97.0%	12.4%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	33.7%	97.0%	12.4%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	33.7%	97.0%	16.4%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	33.7%	97.0%	16.4%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	33.7%	97.0%	16.4%	30.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	16.4%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	16.4%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	16.4%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	16.4%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	16.4%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	32.1%	97.0%	15.1%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	32.1%	96.8%	15.1%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	32.1%	96.8%	15.1%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	31.2%	96.8%	15.1%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	31.2%	96.5%	15.1%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	31.2%	96.8%	15.1%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	31.2%	96.8%	15.1%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	31.2%	96.8%	17.5%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	31.2%	96.8%	17.5%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	31.2%	96.8%	17.5%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	31.2%	96.8%	17.5%	22.5%	10.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	32.0%	96.8%	17.5%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	32.0%	96.8%	17.5%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	32.0%	96.8%	17.5%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	32.0%	96.8%	17.5%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	32.0%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	32.0%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	32.0%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	32.9%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	32.9%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	32.9%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	32.9%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	32.9%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	32.9%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	32.9%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	32.9%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	32.9%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	10.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	28.1%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	6.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	28.1%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	6.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	28.1%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	6.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	28.1%	96.8%	15.1%	21.0%	6.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	28.1%	96.7%	14.3%	21.0%	6.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	28.1%	96.7%	14.3%	21.0%	6.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	28.1%	96.7%	14.3%	21.0%	6.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	28.1%	96.7%	14.3%	21.0%	6.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	27.2%	96.7%	14.3%	16.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	27.2%	97.1%	14.3%	16.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	27.2%	97.2%	14.3%	16.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	27.2%	97.2%	14.3%	16.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	27.2%	97.2%	12.1%	16.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	27.2%	97.2%	12.1%	16.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	27.2%	97.2%	12.1%	16.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	23.9%	97.2%	12.1%	16.7%	4.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	23.9%	97.2%	12.1%	16.7%	4.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	23.9%	97.2%	12.1%	16.7%	4.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	23.9%	97.2%	12.1%	16.7%	4.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	23.9%	97.2%	12.1%	21.0%	4.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	23.9%	97.2%	9.6%	21.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	23.9%	97.2%	9.6%	21.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	23.9%	97.2%	9.6%	21.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	23.1%	97.2%	9.6%	21.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	23.1%	97.2%	9.6%	21.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	23.1%	97.2%	9.6%	21.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	23.1%	97.2%	9.6%	21.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	23.1%	97.2%	9.6%	21.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	23.1%	97.2%	11.5%	21.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	23.1%	97.2%	11.5%	21.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	23.1%	97.2%	11.5%	21.0%	4.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	74.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.9448
AIFS Single	23%	63.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0534
IFS HRES	21%	63.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0441
WeatherNext 2	12%	63.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0132
ICON	4%	60.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0016
NWS forecast	2%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0003
National Blend	<1%	62.0°F	1.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261017-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 67°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗