KSEA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

66%

64%

56%

52%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.8¢Risks 65.75u

AIFSNO 34.2¢Risks 34.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.25u · AIFS −34.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	23.3%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	70.4%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	92.7%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	83.3%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	41.6%	61.8%	28.6%	—	46.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	35.0%	60.1%	68.3%	—	50.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	38.0%	59.1%	56.8%	—	52.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	48.4%	69.2%	48.4%	—	46.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	49.2%	43.4%	64.7%	—	39.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	10.7%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	29.9%	43.0%	33.8%	—	33.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	19.6%	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	36.4%	40.9%	46.3%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	38.8%	23.1%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	33.0%	32.1%	52.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	22.6%	31.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	30.3%	47.9%	61.2%	—	29.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	21.3%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	21.3%	41.3%	56.5%	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	21.4%	29.6%	5.7%	—	25.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	25.1%	47.7%	55.8%	—	23.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	27.3%	58.4%	60.7%	—	22.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	36.5%	51.2%	51.2%	28.7%	24.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	48.7%	59.0%	53.9%	—	26.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	47.3%	44.6%	56.7%	31.9%	19.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	45.8%	54.2%	58.3%	—	18.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	44.2%	51.4%	50.0%	35.8%	23.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	41.0%	47.0%	41.0%	—	21.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	37.6%	48.4%	39.1%	26.3%	16.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	20.3%	40.2%	19.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	62.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	61.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	60.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	60.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	59.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗