KSEA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

66%

64%

56%

52%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.8¢Risks 65.75u

AIFSNO 34.2¢Risks 34.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.25u · AIFS −34.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T03:00:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:26+00:00	51.5%	79.5%	69.3%	75.8%	60.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	51.5%	79.5%	69.3%	75.8%	60.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	51.5%	79.5%	57.8%	75.8%	60.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	51.5%	79.5%	57.8%	75.8%	60.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	51.5%	79.5%	57.8%	75.8%	60.7%
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00	58.9%	79.5%	57.8%	57.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	58.9%	79.5%	57.8%	57.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	58.9%	79.5%	57.8%	57.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	58.9%	79.5%	57.8%	57.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	58.9%	79.5%	57.8%	57.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	58.9%	78.5%	62.5%	57.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	58.9%	78.5%	62.5%	57.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	58.9%	78.5%	62.5%	57.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	53.2%	78.5%	62.4%	57.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	53.2%	78.5%	62.4%	57.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	53.2%	79.1%	62.4%	57.6%	65.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	53.2%	79.1%	62.4%	57.4%	65.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	53.2%	79.1%	65.1%	57.4%	65.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	53.2%	79.1%	65.1%	57.4%	65.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	53.2%	79.1%	65.1%	57.4%	65.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	53.2%	79.1%	65.1%	57.4%	65.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	51.6%	79.1%	65.1%	57.4%	66.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:45+00:00	51.6%	79.1%	65.1%	57.4%	66.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	51.6%	79.1%	65.1%	57.4%	66.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	51.6%	79.1%	65.1%	57.4%	66.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	51.6%	79.1%	64.2%	55.4%	66.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	51.6%	79.1%	64.2%	55.5%	66.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	51.6%	79.1%	64.2%	55.5%	66.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	52.4%	79.1%	64.2%	55.5%	66.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	52.4%	79.1%	64.2%	55.5%	66.4%
2026-10-14T03:00:06+00:00	52.4%	79.1%	64.2%	55.5%	66.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	62.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	61.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	60.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	60.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	59.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗