KSEA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

71%

59%

57%

53%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.1¢Risks 63.05u

AIFSNO 36.9¢Risks 36.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.95u · AIFS −36.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	18.9%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	64.7%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	90.1%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	78.7%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	34.9%	54.9%	23.0%	—	39.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	28.5%	52.9%	61.6%	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	30.9%	51.5%	49.2%	—	44.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	40.5%	61.8%	40.5%	—	39.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	40.9%	35.3%	56.6%	—	31.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	22.8%	34.6%	26.2%	—	26.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	14.0%	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	28.2%	32.2%	37.3%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	30.1%	16.5%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	24.7%	24.0%	43.2%	—	24.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	15.8%	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	21.9%	37.8%	51.0%	—	21.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	14.4%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	14.3%	31.1%	45.6%	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	14.1%	20.6%	3.1%	—	17.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	16.8%	36.3%	44.2%	—	15.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	18.3%	46.4%	48.8%	—	14.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	25.6%	38.9%	38.9%	19.1%	15.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	36.1%	46.1%	41.0%	—	17.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	34.3%	31.9%	43.3%	21.0%	11.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	32.5%	40.3%	44.4%	—	10.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	30.5%	37.2%	35.8%	23.4%	13.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	27.2%	32.5%	27.2%	—	12.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	23.8%	33.1%	25.0%	15.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	10.7%	25.4%	9.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	73%	63.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	64.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	59%	62.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	61.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	60.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 61°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗