KSEA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

71%

59%

57%

53%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.1¢Risks 63.05u

AIFSNO 36.9¢Risks 36.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.95u · AIFS −36.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:20:13+00:00	61.3%	75.0%	65.0%	46.2%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	61.3%	75.0%	65.0%	46.2%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	61.3%	75.0%	65.0%	46.2%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	61.3%	75.0%	65.0%	46.2%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	61.3%	75.0%	65.0%	46.2%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:10+00:00	61.3%	73.2%	65.0%	46.2%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	61.3%	73.2%	65.0%	46.2%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	61.3%	73.2%	65.0%	46.2%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	61.3%	73.2%	64.2%	46.2%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	61.3%	73.2%	64.2%	46.2%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	61.3%	73.2%	64.2%	46.2%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	45.0%	73.2%	64.2%	71.0%	59.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	45.0%	73.2%	64.2%	71.0%	59.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	45.0%	73.2%	64.2%	71.0%	59.2%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	45.0%	73.2%	64.2%	71.0%	59.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	45.0%	73.2%	64.2%	71.0%	59.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	45.0%	73.2%	57.2%	71.0%	59.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	45.0%	73.2%	57.2%	71.0%	59.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	45.0%	73.2%	57.2%	71.0%	59.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	52.9%	73.2%	57.2%	71.0%	59.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	52.9%	73.2%	57.2%	71.0%	59.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	52.9%	73.2%	57.2%	71.0%	59.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	73%	63.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	64.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	59%	62.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	61.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	60.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 61°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗