KSEA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

65%

53%

49%

37%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 51.0¢Risks 51.05u

AIFSNO 49.0¢Risks 48.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +48.95u · AIFS −48.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	15.0%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	58.7%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	87.0%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	73.5%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	28.6%	47.9%	18.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	22.6%	45.6%	54.4%	—	36.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	24.5%	43.9%	41.7%	—	37.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	33.0%	54.0%	33.0%	—	31.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	33.0%	27.9%	48.3%	—	24.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	4.7%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	16.7%	26.9%	19.6%	—	19.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	9.6%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	20.9%	24.4%	28.9%	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	22.4%	11.3%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	17.7%	17.1%	33.9%	—	17.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	10.5%	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	15.1%	28.5%	40.8%	—	14.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	9.2%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	9.0%	22.1%	35.1%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	8.7%	13.5%	1.6%	—	11.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	10.5%	26.0%	33.1%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	11.4%	34.7%	37.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	16.6%	27.6%	27.6%	11.8%	9.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	24.8%	33.7%	29.1%	—	10.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	23.0%	21.0%	30.7%	12.7%	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	21.1%	27.6%	31.2%	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	19.1%	24.5%	23.4%	13.8%	7.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	16.2%	20.2%	16.2%	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	13.4%	20.3%	14.2%	7.7%	3.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	4.9%	14.1%	4.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	65%	64.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	63.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	61.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	49%	61.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	59.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗