KSEA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

65%

53%

49%

37%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 51.0¢Risks 51.05u

AIFSNO 49.0¢Risks 48.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +48.95u · AIFS −48.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:38+00:00	54.3%	64.0%	51.5%	40.0%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	54.3%	64.0%	51.5%	40.0%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	54.3%	64.0%	51.5%	40.0%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	54.3%	64.0%	51.5%	40.0%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:19+00:00	54.3%	64.0%	51.5%	40.0%	—
2026-10-12T04:01:58+00:00	45.7%	66.3%	49.2%	65.3%	55.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	45.7%	66.3%	49.2%	65.3%	55.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	45.7%	66.3%	46.0%	65.3%	55.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	45.7%	66.3%	46.0%	65.3%	55.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	45.7%	66.3%	46.0%	65.3%	55.2%
2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00	47.7%	66.3%	46.0%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	47.7%	66.3%	46.0%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	47.7%	66.3%	46.0%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	47.7%	66.3%	46.0%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	47.7%	66.3%	46.0%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00	47.7%	66.3%	49.1%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	47.7%	66.0%	49.1%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	47.7%	66.0%	49.1%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00	50.0%	66.0%	49.1%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	50.0%	65.7%	49.1%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	50.0%	65.7%	49.1%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	50.0%	64.9%	49.1%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	50.0%	65.2%	49.1%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	50.0%	65.2%	48.3%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	50.0%	65.2%	48.3%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	50.0%	65.2%	48.3%	72.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	38.2%	65.2%	48.3%	65.4%	49.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	38.2%	65.2%	48.3%	65.4%	49.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	38.2%	65.2%	48.3%	65.4%	49.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	38.2%	65.2%	48.3%	65.4%	49.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	38.2%	65.2%	52.6%	65.4%	49.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	38.2%	65.2%	52.6%	65.4%	49.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	38.2%	65.2%	52.6%	65.4%	49.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	38.2%	65.2%	52.6%	65.4%	49.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	36.7%	65.2%	52.6%	65.4%	49.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	36.7%	65.2%	52.6%	65.4%	49.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	36.7%	65.2%	52.6%	65.4%	49.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	65%	64.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	63.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	61.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	49%	61.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	59.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗