Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	42.5%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	40.3%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	68.8%	18.4%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	14.5%	34.3%	60.4%	—	23.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	14.0%	3.3%	15.2%	—	19.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	12.5%	11.0%	21.6%	—	12.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	16.4%	11.5%	4.5%	—	12.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	18.9%	5.8%	24.5%	—	12.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	62.6%	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	6.2%	6.5%	5.7%	—	15.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	13.5%	6.9%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	12.4%	19.6%	4.8%	—	17.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	2.4%	12.7%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	2.3%	6.5%	4.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	4.2%	5.4%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	3.2%	4.4%	2.4%	95.1%	7.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	1.4%	5.5%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	1.3%	2.6%	1.2%	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.6%	1.4%	35.7%	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.5%	0.8%	0.5%	93.9%	1.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.8%	0.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.2%	0.3%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	13%	58.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	59.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	60.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	60.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	62.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	58.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 52°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261020-TMAX-LE52
Opened Oct 16 · 19:37 UTC

Original listing: Seattle stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 52°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗