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KSEA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≤ 52°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 21:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
13%
ICON
8%
EPS
4%
WN2
2%
AIFS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 7.1¢Risks 3.55u
VS
AIFSNO 92.9¢Risks 46.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.45u · AIFS −46.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:0010-16 19:3710-16 21:0710-16 21:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:001.5%3.7%1.8%12.7%8.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:001.5%3.7%1.8%12.7%8.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:001.5%3.7%1.8%12.7%8.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:001.5%3.7%1.8%12.7%8.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES13%58.2°F5.0°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
ICON8%59.2°F4.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
NWS forecast7%59.0°F4.5°F2026-10-16 14:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%60.1°F4.2°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%60.3°F3.7°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
AIFS Single2%62.5°F4.6°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
National Blend<1%58.0°F2.2°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 52°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261020-TMAX-LE52
Opened Oct 16 · 19:37 UTC

Original listing: Seattle stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 52°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗