KSEA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

60%

49%

45%

32%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 48.0¢Risks 48.00u

EPSNO 52.0¢Risks 52.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +52.00u · EPS −52.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	2.3%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	0.3%	41.3%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	13.7%	28.6%	0.8%	—	25.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	10.3%	29.7%	35.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	7.0%	41.7%	8.4%	—	14.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	32.3%	25.5%	20.6%	—	15.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	18.9%	12.9%	24.5%	—	12.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	3.3%	22.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	43.9%	43.0%	29.1%	—	26.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	35.9%	45.5%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	45.4%	50.0%	38.2%	—	28.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	44.3%	46.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	54.9%	52.9%	44.2%	—	33.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	63.7%	66.5%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	54.1%	61.2%	45.9%	—	38.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	55.3%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	55.5%	73.6%	40.3%	—	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	45.5%	69.5%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	38.5%	72.0%	46.5%	0.0%	41.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	40.5%	66.4%	46.4%	—	40.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	57.4%	73.4%	42.6%	50.0%	52.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	75.2%	38.5%	—	46.1%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	80.0%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	64%	66.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	60%	65.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	64.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	64.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	62.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	29%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 65°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗