KSEA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

60%

49%

45%

32%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 48.0¢Risks 48.00u

EPSNO 52.0¢Risks 52.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +52.00u · EPS −52.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:39+00:00	34.8%	13.3%	28.3%	26.4%	11.9%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	34.8%	16.8%	21.1%	26.4%	11.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	34.8%	16.8%	21.1%	26.4%	11.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	34.8%	16.8%	21.1%	26.4%	11.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	34.1%	16.8%	21.1%	26.4%	11.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	34.1%	16.8%	21.2%	26.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	34.1%	16.8%	21.2%	26.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	34.1%	16.8%	21.2%	26.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	34.1%	16.8%	21.2%	26.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	34.1%	16.8%	21.8%	26.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	34.1%	16.8%	21.8%	26.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	34.1%	16.8%	21.8%	26.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	40.2%	16.8%	21.8%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	40.2%	16.8%	21.8%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	40.2%	16.8%	21.8%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	40.2%	16.8%	21.8%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	40.2%	16.8%	21.8%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	40.2%	16.8%	28.1%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	40.2%	16.8%	28.1%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	40.2%	16.8%	28.1%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	38.1%	16.8%	28.1%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	38.1%	16.8%	28.1%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	38.1%	16.8%	28.1%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	38.1%	16.8%	28.1%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:10+00:00	38.1%	16.8%	28.1%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	38.1%	16.8%	26.2%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	38.1%	16.8%	26.2%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	38.1%	16.8%	26.2%	30.7%	43.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00	34.8%	16.8%	26.2%	36.9%	32.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	34.8%	16.8%	26.2%	36.9%	32.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	34.8%	16.8%	26.2%	36.9%	32.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	34.8%	16.8%	26.2%	36.9%	32.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	34.8%	16.8%	26.2%	36.9%	32.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:38+00:00	34.8%	16.8%	26.0%	36.9%	32.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	34.8%	20.7%	26.0%	36.9%	32.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	34.8%	20.7%	26.0%	36.9%	32.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	41.2%	20.7%	26.0%	36.9%	32.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	41.2%	20.8%	26.0%	36.9%	32.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	41.2%	21.3%	26.0%	36.9%	32.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	41.2%	21.3%	26.0%	36.9%	32.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	41.2%	21.3%	30.4%	36.9%	32.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	41.2%	21.3%	30.4%	36.9%	32.1%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	41.2%	21.3%	30.4%	36.9%	32.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	41.2%	21.3%	30.4%	36.9%	32.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	40.5%	21.3%	30.4%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	40.5%	21.3%	30.4%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	40.5%	21.3%	30.4%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	40.5%	21.3%	30.4%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	40.5%	21.3%	29.6%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	40.5%	21.3%	29.6%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	40.5%	21.3%	29.6%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	39.0%	21.3%	29.6%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	39.0%	21.3%	29.6%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	39.0%	21.3%	29.6%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	39.0%	21.3%	29.6%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	39.0%	21.3%	29.6%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	39.0%	21.3%	26.0%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	39.0%	21.3%	26.0%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	39.0%	21.3%	26.0%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	39.0%	21.3%	26.0%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	38.9%	21.3%	26.0%	33.0%	52.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	38.9%	21.3%	26.0%	33.0%	52.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	38.9%	21.3%	26.0%	33.0%	52.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	38.9%	21.3%	26.0%	33.0%	52.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	38.9%	17.1%	21.8%	33.0%	52.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	38.9%	17.1%	21.8%	33.0%	52.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	38.9%	17.1%	21.8%	33.0%	52.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	38.9%	17.1%	21.8%	33.0%	52.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	38.9%	17.1%	21.8%	33.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	38.9%	17.7%	21.8%	33.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	38.9%	17.7%	21.8%	33.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	38.9%	17.7%	21.8%	33.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	38.9%	17.7%	26.3%	33.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	38.9%	17.7%	26.3%	33.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	38.9%	17.7%	26.3%	33.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	38.1%	17.7%	26.3%	33.9%	40.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	38.1%	17.7%	26.3%	33.9%	40.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	38.1%	17.7%	26.3%	33.9%	40.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	38.1%	17.7%	26.3%	33.9%	40.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	38.1%	17.7%	26.3%	51.4%	40.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	38.1%	17.7%	33.1%	51.4%	40.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	38.1%	17.7%	33.1%	51.4%	40.2%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	38.1%	17.7%	33.1%	51.4%	40.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	35.8%	17.7%	33.1%	51.4%	40.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	35.8%	17.7%	33.1%	51.4%	40.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	35.8%	17.7%	33.1%	51.4%	40.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	35.8%	17.7%	33.1%	51.4%	40.2%
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	35.8%	17.7%	33.1%	51.4%	40.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	35.8%	17.7%	33.1%	51.4%	40.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	35.8%	17.7%	33.1%	51.4%	40.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	35.8%	17.7%	33.1%	51.4%	40.2%
2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00	46.5%	17.7%	33.1%	64.1%	58.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	46.5%	17.7%	33.1%	64.1%	58.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	46.5%	17.7%	33.1%	64.1%	58.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	46.5%	17.7%	33.1%	64.1%	58.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	46.5%	17.7%	33.1%	64.1%	58.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	46.5%	30.3%	36.3%	64.1%	58.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	46.5%	30.3%	36.3%	64.1%	58.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	46.5%	30.3%	36.3%	64.1%	58.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	43.9%	30.3%	36.3%	64.1%	58.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	43.9%	30.5%	36.4%	64.1%	58.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:17+00:00	43.9%	31.9%	36.4%	64.1%	58.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	43.9%	31.9%	36.4%	64.1%	58.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	43.9%	31.9%	36.4%	64.1%	58.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	43.9%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	58.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	43.9%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	58.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	43.9%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	58.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	47.4%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	59.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	47.4%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	59.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	47.4%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	59.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	47.4%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	59.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	47.4%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	59.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	47.4%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	59.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	47.4%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	59.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	47.4%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	59.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	49.1%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	59.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	49.1%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	59.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	49.1%	31.9%	44.7%	64.1%	59.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	64%	66.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	60%	65.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	64.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	64.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	62.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	29%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 65°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗