KSEA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

38%

29%

25%

15%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 40.4¢Risks 40.35u

HRESNO 59.7¢Risks 59.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.65u · HRES −59.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	16.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	16.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	53.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	77.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	81.5%	—	32.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	74.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	4.7%	61.3%	—	34.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	41.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	46.5%	70.8%	6.0%	29.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	77.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	28.5%	69.6%	7.9%	27.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	63.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	12.5%	9.0%	16.0%	22.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	64.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	11.1%	54.8%	16.4%	23.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	62.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	58.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	55.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	55.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	53.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	53.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	50.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261024-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗