KSEA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

38%

29%

25%

15%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 40.4¢Risks 40.35u

HRESNO 59.7¢Risks 59.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.65u · HRES −59.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:46+00:00	52.8%	67.1%	44.6%	36.7%	66.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	52.8%	67.1%	42.2%	36.7%	66.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	52.8%	67.1%	42.2%	36.7%	66.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	52.8%	67.1%	42.2%	36.7%	66.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	52.8%	67.1%	42.2%	36.7%	66.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00	19.8%	67.1%	42.2%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	19.8%	67.1%	42.2%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	19.8%	67.1%	42.2%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	19.8%	67.1%	42.2%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	19.8%	67.1%	42.2%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	19.8%	65.2%	39.9%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	19.8%	65.2%	39.9%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	19.8%	65.2%	39.9%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	49.3%	65.0%	39.9%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00	49.3%	65.0%	39.9%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	49.3%	61.9%	39.9%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	49.3%	61.9%	39.9%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	49.3%	61.9%	45.7%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	49.3%	61.9%	45.7%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	49.3%	61.9%	45.7%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	49.3%	61.9%	45.7%	41.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	30.9%	61.9%	45.7%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	30.9%	61.9%	45.7%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	30.9%	61.9%	45.7%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	30.9%	61.9%	45.7%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	30.9%	61.9%	38.2%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	30.9%	61.9%	38.2%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	30.9%	61.9%	38.2%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	55.9%	61.9%	38.2%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	55.9%	61.9%	38.2%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	55.9%	61.9%	38.2%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	55.9%	61.9%	38.2%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00	55.9%	61.9%	38.2%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	55.9%	61.9%	49.1%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	55.9%	61.9%	49.1%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	55.9%	61.9%	49.1%	35.2%	37.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00	25.2%	61.9%	49.1%	14.6%	28.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	25.2%	61.9%	49.1%	14.6%	28.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	25.2%	61.9%	49.1%	14.6%	28.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	25.2%	61.9%	49.1%	14.6%	28.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	25.2%	61.9%	49.1%	14.6%	28.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	25.2%	66.1%	37.6%	14.6%	28.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	25.2%	66.1%	37.6%	14.6%	28.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	58.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	55.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	55.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	53.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	53.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	50.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261024-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗