KSEA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

18%

16%

11%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.2¢Risks 7.08u

WN2NO 85.9¢Risks 42.93u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +42.93u · WN2 −42.93u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	1.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	8.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	9.5%	—	13.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	13.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	64.6%	—	15.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	72.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.5%	45.3%	—	9.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	4.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.6%	6.5%	0.4%	10.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	7.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	2.5%	2.2%	1.0%	12.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	53.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	19%	56.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	56.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	57.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	16%	55.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	55.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	57.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	56.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261025-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 63°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗