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KSEA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
19%
EPS
18%
ICON
16%
AIFS
11%
WN2
9%
Consensus
11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 14.2¢Risks 7.08u
VS
WN2NO 85.9¢Risks 42.93u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +42.93u · WN2 −42.93u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.8% · 2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS HRES: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 19.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00IFS HRES: 19.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS HRES: 19.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 19.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 19.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS HRES: 19.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00IFS HRES: 19.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 22:2810-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:003.0%18.2%15.8%3.6%14.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:003.0%18.2%15.8%3.6%14.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:003.0%18.2%15.8%3.6%14.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:003.0%18.2%15.8%3.6%14.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:003.0%18.2%15.8%3.6%14.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:003.0%15.9%10.9%3.6%14.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:003.0%15.9%10.9%3.6%14.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:003.0%15.9%10.9%3.6%14.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:0013.3%15.9%10.9%3.6%14.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:0013.3%15.9%10.9%3.6%14.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:0013.3%14.3%10.9%3.6%14.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:0013.3%14.3%10.9%3.6%14.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:0013.3%14.3%12.8%3.6%14.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:0013.3%14.3%12.8%3.6%14.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:0013.3%14.3%12.8%3.6%14.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:0013.3%14.3%12.8%3.6%14.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:0012.9%14.3%12.8%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:0012.9%14.3%12.8%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:0012.9%14.3%12.8%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:0012.9%14.3%12.8%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:0012.9%14.3%10.9%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:0012.9%14.3%10.9%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:0012.9%14.3%10.9%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:0011.2%14.3%10.9%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:0011.2%14.3%10.9%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:0011.2%14.3%10.9%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:0011.2%14.3%10.9%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:0011.2%14.3%10.9%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:0011.2%14.3%17.4%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:0011.2%14.3%17.4%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0011.2%14.3%17.4%21.0%16.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:0011.1%14.3%17.4%19.4%16.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:0011.1%14.3%17.4%19.4%16.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0011.1%14.3%17.4%19.4%16.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0011.1%14.3%17.4%19.4%16.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:0011.1%14.3%17.4%19.4%16.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:0011.1%18.4%8.9%19.4%16.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:0011.1%18.4%8.9%19.4%16.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES19%56.8°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble18%56.8°F6.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast18%57.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON16%55.5°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single11%55.9°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend11%57.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%56.2°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261025-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 63°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗