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KSEA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
31%
HRES
24%
WN2
11%
AIFS
10%
ICON
6%
Consensus
10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 18.6¢Risks 18.60u
VS
ICONNO 81.4¢Risks 81.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +81.40u · ICON −81.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-11 12:0010-15 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSIFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:002.4%——5.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0010.8%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0024.0%——27.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0022.4%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0012.0%——29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0030.1%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0016.2%——24.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0017.2%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0014.3%——25.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0034.9%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0013.4%——29.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0019.3%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0012.0%——24.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0017.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0018.6%——28.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0013.4%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0012.8%——21.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0022.3%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:007.6%——25.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:004.1%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:005.7%——16.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:004.4%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:006.3%——18.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:003.6%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:003.6%—18.9%21.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:003.1%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:003.5%—13.5%11.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:002.9%—9.7%—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.8%—1.0%10.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:002.4%—23.7%—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:002.7%0.0%15.9%12.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——29.0%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble31%58.9°F7.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES24%57.9°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 211%56.2°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend11%57.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
AIFS Single10%55.3°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON6%47.0°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261026-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 63°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗