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KSEA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
31%
HRES
24%
WN2
11%
AIFS
10%
ICON
6%
Consensus
10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 18.6¢Risks 18.60u
VS
ICONNO 81.4¢Risks 81.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +81.40u · ICON −81.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00IFS HRES: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00IFS HRES: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS HRES: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS HRES: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00IFS HRES: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:4910-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:0010.5%23.5%17.1%23.8%6.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:0010.5%23.5%17.1%23.8%6.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0010.5%23.5%17.1%23.8%6.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0010.5%23.5%17.1%23.8%6.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:0010.5%23.5%17.1%23.8%6.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:0010.5%31.1%10.9%23.8%6.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:0010.5%31.1%10.9%23.8%6.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble31%58.9°F7.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES24%57.9°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 211%56.2°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend11%57.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
AIFS Single10%55.3°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON6%47.0°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261026-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 63°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗