KSFO / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

82%

53%

<1%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 43.0¢Risks 42.95u

WN2NO 57.0¢Risks 57.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +57.05u · WN2 −57.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.7%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	81.5%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	87.7%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	91.2%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	88.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	90.1%	90.1%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	92.4%	0.1%	—	6.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	66.3%	92.4%	10.3%	—	12.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.0%	89.2%	24.2%	—	2.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	61.5%	87.5%	26.5%	—	4.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.4%	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	79.2%	88.7%	17.2%	—	3.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	60.7%	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	90.6%	87.6%	58.2%	—	3.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	76.9%	93.0%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	88.4%	92.8%	67.0%	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	81.0%	94.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	81.7%	95.1%	81.7%	—	22.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	89.4%	96.5%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	95.8%	96.0%	61.8%	0.0%	24.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	97.6%	92.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	95.5%	93.2%	61.5%	—	11.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	98.6%	93.4%	63.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	98.2%	95.7%	57.4%	5.5%	19.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	98.1%	95.7%	37.3%	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	97.8%	97.2%	55.4%	10.1%	19.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	97.5%	99.7%	35.0%	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	98.5%	99.5%	80.9%	13.8%	38.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	98.5%	99.9%	77.6%	—	48.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	99.3%	99.9%	86.6%	19.2%	66.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	97.7%	100.0%	75.9%	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	86%	83.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0210
IFS HRES	82%	83.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0342
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2016
IFS Ensemble	53%	79.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2228
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3125
AIFS Single	3%	71.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.9448
WeatherNext 2	<1%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.9920

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261017-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗