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KSFO / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
86%
HRES
82%
EPS
53%
AIFS
3%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 43.0¢Risks 42.95u
VS
WN2NO 57.0¢Risks 57.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +57.05u · WN2 −57.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00IFS HRES: 81.5% · 2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00IFS HRES: 81.5% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS HRES: 81.5% · 2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00IFS HRES: 81.5% · 2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00IFS HRES: 81.5% · 2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00IFS HRES: 81.5% · 2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00IFS HRES: 81.5% · 2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00IFS HRES: 81.5% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00IFS HRES: 81.5% · 2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00IFS HRES: 81.5% · 2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00IFS HRES: 81.5% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00ICON: 85.5% · 2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00ICON: 85.5% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00ICON: 85.5% · 2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00ICON: 85.5% · 2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00ICON: 85.5% · 2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00ICON: 85.5% · 2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00ICON: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00ICON: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00ICON: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00ICON: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00ICON: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:0010-14 15:1210-14 21:1310-15 03:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:004.2%52.8%0.6%80.2%92.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:004.2%52.8%0.6%80.2%92.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:004.2%52.8%0.6%80.2%92.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:004.2%52.8%0.3%80.2%92.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:004.2%52.8%0.3%80.2%92.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:004.2%52.8%0.3%80.2%92.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:002.5%52.8%0.3%81.5%85.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:002.5%52.8%0.3%81.5%85.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:002.5%52.8%0.3%81.5%85.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:002.5%52.8%0.3%81.5%85.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:002.5%52.8%0.3%81.5%85.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:002.5%52.8%0.4%81.5%85.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:002.5%52.8%0.4%81.5%85.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:002.5%52.8%0.4%81.5%85.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:002.8%52.8%0.4%81.5%85.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:002.8%52.8%0.4%81.5%85.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:002.8%52.8%0.4%81.5%85.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON86%83.7°F4.0°F2026-10-14 12:000.0210
IFS HRES82%83.5°F4.5°F2026-10-14 12:000.0342
NWS forecast55%80.0°F3.9°F2026-10-14 14:000.2016
IFS Ensemble53%79.7°F2.8°F2026-10-14 00:000.2228
National Blend44%79.0°F3.3°F2026-10-14 06:000.3125
AIFS Single3%71.3°F4.3°F2026-10-14 18:000.9448
WeatherNext 2<1%70.6°F3.4°F2026-10-14 12:000.9920

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261017-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗