KSFO / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

69%

36%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.9¢Risks 38.90u

WN2NO 61.1¢Risks 61.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.10u · WN2 −61.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	72.0%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	79.8%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	84.5%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	82.5%	82.5%	0.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	85.6%	0.0%	—	2.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	51.5%	85.4%	5.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.9%	80.0%	13.6%	—	0.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	45.0%	76.8%	14.8%	—	1.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	64.6%	77.9%	8.3%	—	1.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	42.9%	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	80.4%	75.6%	40.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	60.3%	84.1%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	76.0%	83.5%	48.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	64.7%	86.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	65.1%	87.2%	65.1%	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	76.3%	89.9%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	88.1%	88.6%	40.3%	0.0%	10.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	92.1%	80.2%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	86.6%	81.7%	38.5%	—	3.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	94.5%	81.7%	39.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	92.9%	86.3%	33.1%	1.3%	6.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	92.3%	85.7%	16.6%	—	7.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	91.1%	89.3%	29.5%	2.6%	6.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	89.6%	98.2%	13.9%	—	5.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	92.7%	96.8%	55.8%	3.5%	15.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	92.0%	99.2%	50.0%	—	21.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	95.2%	98.9%	62.4%	4.8%	36.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	87.7%	99.7%	45.1%	—	37.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	78%	84.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0493
IFS HRES	69%	83.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0986
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1936
IFS Ensemble	36%	80.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4109
AIFS Single	<1%	70.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.9940
WeatherNext 2	<1%	70.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	1.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261017-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗