KSFO / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

69%

36%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.9¢Risks 38.90u

WN2NO 61.1¢Risks 61.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.10u · WN2 −61.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:39+00:00	0.9%	26.1%	0.1%	67.3%	71.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	0.9%	26.1%	0.1%	67.3%	71.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	0.9%	26.1%	0.1%	67.3%	71.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	0.9%	26.1%	0.1%	67.3%	71.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	0.9%	26.1%	0.1%	67.3%	71.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:32+00:00	0.5%	26.1%	0.1%	72.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	0.5%	26.1%	0.1%	72.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	0.5%	26.1%	0.1%	72.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	0.5%	26.1%	0.1%	72.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:48+00:00	0.5%	26.1%	0.0%	72.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:41+00:00	0.5%	26.1%	0.0%	72.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	0.5%	31.0%	0.0%	72.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:39+00:00	0.5%	31.0%	0.0%	72.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	0.3%	31.4%	0.0%	72.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	0.3%	31.4%	0.0%	72.1%	87.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	0.7%	36.0%	0.0%	72.3%	83.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	0.7%	35.9%	0.0%	72.3%	83.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	0.7%	35.9%	0.0%	72.3%	83.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	0.7%	35.9%	0.0%	72.3%	83.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	0.7%	35.9%	0.0%	72.3%	83.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	0.7%	35.9%	0.0%	72.3%	83.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	0.7%	35.9%	0.0%	72.3%	77.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:42+00:00	0.7%	35.9%	0.0%	72.3%	77.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	0.7%	35.9%	0.0%	72.3%	77.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	0.7%	35.9%	0.0%	72.3%	77.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	0.7%	35.9%	0.0%	68.6%	77.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	0.7%	35.9%	0.0%	68.6%	77.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	0.7%	35.9%	0.0%	68.6%	77.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	0.7%	35.9%	0.0%	68.6%	77.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	0.3%	35.9%	0.0%	68.6%	77.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	0.3%	35.9%	0.0%	68.6%	77.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	0.3%	35.9%	0.0%	68.6%	77.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	0.3%	35.9%	0.0%	68.6%	77.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	78%	84.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0493
IFS HRES	69%	83.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0986
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1936
IFS Ensemble	36%	80.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4109
AIFS Single	<1%	70.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.9940
WeatherNext 2	<1%	70.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	1.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261017-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗