KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 76°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

47%

19%

<1%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.6¢Risks 25.55u

WN2NO 74.4¢Risks 74.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.45u · WN2 −74.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	30.2%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	93.3%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	97.0%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	97.2%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	21.9%	87.0%	0.2%	—	2.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.6%	14.4%	0.4%	—	1.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	11.4%	37.2%	0.8%	—	1.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%	—	0.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.3%	9.3%	1.3%	—	0.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	14.1%	3.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.3%	11.9%	3.4%	—	0.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.4%	4.6%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.9%	4.2%	2.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.2%	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.2%	6.7%	1.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.1%	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.4%	2.4%	0.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.7%	2.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.7%	1.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.6%	1.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.0%	2.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.3%	4.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.0%	4.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	8.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	17.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	22.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	14.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	9.9%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	76.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2873
ICON	50%	75.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2540
IFS Ensemble	47%	75.0°F	7.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2237
IFS HRES	19%	69.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0357
AIFS Single	1%	62.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	63.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 76°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗