KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 76°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

47%

19%

<1%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.6¢Risks 25.55u

WN2NO 74.4¢Risks 74.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.45u · WN2 −74.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:20:16+00:00	2.0%	48.4%	0.9%	4.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	2.0%	48.4%	0.9%	4.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	2.0%	48.4%	0.9%	4.0%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	1.9%	48.4%	0.9%	4.0%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	2.0%	48.4%	0.9%	4.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:13+00:00	2.0%	47.3%	0.9%	4.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	2.0%	47.3%	0.9%	4.0%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	2.0%	47.3%	0.9%	4.0%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	2.0%	47.3%	1.1%	4.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	2.0%	47.3%	1.1%	4.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	2.0%	47.3%	1.1%	4.0%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	1.1%	47.3%	1.1%	18.9%	50.4%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	1.1%	47.3%	1.1%	18.9%	50.4%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	1.1%	47.3%	1.1%	18.9%	50.4%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	1.1%	47.3%	1.1%	18.9%	50.4%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	1.1%	47.3%	1.1%	18.9%	50.4%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	1.1%	47.3%	0.7%	18.9%	50.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:47+00:00	1.1%	47.3%	0.7%	18.9%	50.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	1.1%	47.3%	0.7%	18.9%	50.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	1.1%	47.3%	0.7%	18.9%	50.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	1.1%	47.3%	0.7%	18.9%	50.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	1.1%	47.3%	0.7%	18.9%	50.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	76.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2873
ICON	50%	75.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2540
IFS Ensemble	47%	75.0°F	7.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2237
IFS HRES	19%	69.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0357
AIFS Single	1%	62.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	63.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 76°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗