KSFO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

80%

65%

60%

53%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.4¢Risks 75.40u

ICONNO 24.6¢Risks 24.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.60u · ICON −24.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	91.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	85.0%	—	—	83.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	53.9%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	26.0%	68.2%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	85.1%	79.1%	18.4%	—	71.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	80.1%	58.7%	39.9%	—	66.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	47.7%	67.7%	63.5%	—	62.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	79.4%	84.6%	62.5%	—	63.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	49.2%	65.5%	59.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	35.0%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	80.4%	60.4%	60.4%	—	57.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	43.7%	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	57.3%	77.0%	67.8%	—	52.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	39.7%	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	46.1%	64.3%	44.2%	—	48.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	62.8%	71.8%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	72.4%	64.1%	42.8%	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	70.2%	71.2%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	68.9%	73.6%	44.5%	13.7%	45.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	65.4%	75.1%	6.0%	—	45.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	63.7%	82.5%	48.8%	44.2%	45.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	67.5%	84.0%	50.0%	—	44.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	55.0%	86.3%	53.7%	—	46.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	59.0%	91.3%	37.3%	—	42.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	61.9%	90.5%	47.3%	48.7%	43.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	58.3%	92.9%	55.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	62.8%	93.7%	54.3%	40.0%	48.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	64.8%	95.9%	48.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	72.4%	96.6%	57.9%	40.6%	54.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	73.3%	95.5%	64.5%	—	53.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	69.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0005
National Blend	87%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0169
WeatherNext 2	80%	64.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0380
AIFS Single	65%	63.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1197
IFS HRES	60%	62.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1624
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.2016
ICON	53%	61.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2209

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗