KSFO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

80%

65%

60%

53%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.4¢Risks 75.40u

ICONNO 24.6¢Risks 24.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.60u · ICON −24.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:45+00:00	66.4%	91.6%	69.5%	60.3%	87.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	66.4%	91.6%	69.5%	60.3%	87.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	66.4%	91.6%	69.5%	60.3%	87.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	66.4%	91.6%	71.2%	60.3%	87.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	66.4%	91.6%	71.2%	60.3%	87.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	66.4%	91.6%	71.2%	60.3%	87.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	60.3%	91.6%	71.2%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	60.3%	91.6%	71.2%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	60.3%	91.6%	71.2%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	60.3%	91.6%	71.2%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	60.3%	91.6%	71.2%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	60.3%	91.9%	70.4%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	60.3%	91.9%	70.4%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	60.3%	91.9%	70.4%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	67.1%	91.9%	70.4%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	67.1%	91.9%	70.4%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	67.1%	91.9%	70.4%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:40+00:00	67.1%	91.9%	70.4%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	67.1%	91.9%	70.4%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	67.1%	91.9%	73.7%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	67.1%	91.9%	73.7%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	67.1%	91.9%	73.7%	66.8%	66.3%
2026-10-15T07:50:32+00:00	71.4%	91.9%	73.7%	61.8%	87.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	71.4%	91.9%	73.7%	61.8%	87.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	71.4%	91.9%	73.7%	61.8%	87.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	71.4%	91.9%	73.7%	61.8%	87.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:48+00:00	71.4%	91.9%	77.4%	61.8%	87.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:41+00:00	71.4%	91.9%	77.4%	61.8%	87.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	71.4%	97.1%	77.4%	61.8%	87.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:39+00:00	71.4%	97.1%	77.4%	61.8%	87.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	66.8%	97.1%	77.4%	61.8%	87.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	66.8%	97.1%	77.4%	61.8%	87.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:42+00:00	66.8%	97.4%	77.4%	61.8%	87.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	66.8%	97.4%	77.4%	61.8%	87.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	66.8%	97.4%	77.4%	61.8%	87.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	66.8%	97.4%	77.4%	61.8%	87.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	66.8%	97.4%	77.4%	61.8%	87.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	66.8%	97.4%	77.4%	61.8%	87.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	77.4%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	77.4%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	77.4%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	77.4%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	78.2%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	78.2%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	78.2%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	78.2%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	78.2%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	78.2%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	78.2%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T04:25:04+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	78.2%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	75.8%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	75.8%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	65.3%	97.4%	75.8%	67.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	66.3%	97.4%	75.8%	67.0%	53.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	66.3%	97.4%	75.8%	67.0%	53.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	66.3%	97.4%	75.8%	67.0%	53.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	66.3%	97.4%	75.8%	67.0%	53.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	66.3%	97.4%	75.8%	67.0%	53.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	66.3%	97.8%	80.5%	67.0%	53.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	66.3%	97.8%	80.5%	67.0%	53.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	66.3%	97.8%	80.5%	67.0%	53.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:58+00:00	65.4%	97.8%	80.5%	59.7%	53.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	65.4%	97.8%	80.5%	59.7%	53.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	69.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0005
National Blend	87%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0169
WeatherNext 2	80%	64.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0380
AIFS Single	65%	63.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1197
IFS HRES	60%	62.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1624
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.2016
ICON	53%	61.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2209

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗