KSFO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

46%

41%

37%

36%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

WN2NO 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.20u · WN2 −44.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	66.5%	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	28.9%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.0%	9.3%	41.9%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	63.1%	54.2%	5.4%	—	44.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	54.4%	30.4%	16.1%	—	37.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	20.5%	38.0%	33.7%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	50.8%	58.7%	31.6%	—	32.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	19.5%	33.0%	27.2%	—	34.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	10.7%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	49.1%	26.9%	26.9%	—	24.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	14.5%	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	23.0%	42.7%	32.2%	—	19.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	11.3%	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	14.2%	27.1%	13.1%	—	15.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	24.9%	33.5%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	33.0%	25.1%	11.3%	—	14.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	29.8%	30.7%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	27.3%	32.1%	10.9%	1.4%	11.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	23.1%	32.6%	0.4%	—	10.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	20.7%	40.8%	11.6%	9.4%	10.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	22.5%	41.6%	11.4%	—	8.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	13.0%	43.8%	12.4%	—	8.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	14.3%	52.6%	5.3%	—	6.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	14.9%	48.7%	7.9%	8.4%	6.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	11.8%	52.8%	10.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	13.0%	52.9%	8.9%	4.4%	6.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	12.8%	59.0%	6.0%	—	6.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	16.1%	59.4%	8.3%	3.4%	7.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	15.0%	51.6%	9.9%	—	5.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	75%	68.5°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.5655
National Blend	65%	67.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.4173
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
ICON	46%	64.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2116
IFS HRES	41%	64.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	37%	63.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.1399
WeatherNext 2	36%	63.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1325

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗