KSFO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

46%

41%

37%

36%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

WN2NO 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.20u · WN2 −44.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:31+00:00	38.8%	79.0%	41.2%	57.5%	74.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	38.8%	79.0%	40.5%	57.5%	74.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	38.8%	79.0%	40.5%	57.5%	74.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	38.8%	79.0%	40.5%	57.5%	74.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	38.8%	79.0%	40.5%	57.5%	74.1%
2026-10-13T08:04:19+00:00	43.3%	79.0%	40.5%	53.6%	72.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	43.3%	79.0%	40.5%	53.6%	72.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	43.3%	79.0%	40.5%	53.6%	72.0%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	43.3%	79.0%	40.5%	53.6%	72.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	43.3%	73.9%	39.6%	53.6%	72.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	43.3%	73.9%	39.6%	53.6%	72.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	43.3%	73.9%	39.6%	53.6%	72.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	43.3%	73.9%	39.6%	53.6%	72.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	37.4%	73.9%	39.7%	53.6%	72.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	39.7%	53.6%	72.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:54+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	39.7%	53.6%	72.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	39.7%	53.6%	72.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	38.0%	53.6%	72.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	38.0%	53.6%	72.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	37.4%	75.1%	38.0%	53.6%	72.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	36.0%	75.1%	38.0%	53.6%	46.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	36.0%	75.1%	38.0%	53.6%	46.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:45+00:00	36.0%	75.1%	38.0%	53.6%	46.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	36.0%	75.1%	38.0%	53.6%	46.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	36.0%	75.1%	38.0%	41.0%	46.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	36.0%	75.2%	36.4%	41.0%	46.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	36.0%	75.2%	36.4%	41.0%	46.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	36.0%	75.2%	36.4%	41.0%	46.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	37.4%	75.2%	36.4%	41.0%	46.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	37.4%	75.2%	36.4%	41.0%	46.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	75%	68.5°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.5655
National Blend	65%	67.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.4173
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
ICON	46%	64.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2116
IFS HRES	41%	64.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	37%	63.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.1399
WeatherNext 2	36%	63.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1325

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗