KSFO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

57%

51%

38%

34%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.8¢Risks 49.80u

WN2NO 50.2¢Risks 50.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.20u · WN2 −50.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	18.1%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	12.0%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	8.5%	31.1%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	23.0%	20.4%	3.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	54.4%	69.0%	63.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	57.6%	59.1%	40.9%	—	64.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	46.0%	7.8%	16.9%	—	40.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	52.5%	30.8%	27.2%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	10.7%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	38.8%	48.2%	46.5%	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	72.1%	40.2%	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	37.3%	50.9%	56.4%	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	8.4%	48.1%	—	—	27.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	28.7%	44.2%	39.4%	—	27.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	41.1%	44.0%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	74.1%	28.5%	34.9%	0.7%	23.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	54.2%	27.9%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	68.9%	57.6%	38.2%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	53.4%	50.0%	0.1%	—	23.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	20.7%	53.5%	50.0%	0.7%	26.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	45.2%	40.5%	41.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	59.9%	42.6%	33.1%	19.9%	30.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	70.9%	36.1%	26.9%	—	28.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	61.9%	54.0%	35.6%	7.9%	24.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	77.9%	83.6%	55.6%	—	35.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	74.4%	77.8%	50.0%	21.2%	45.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	70.2%	82.8%	—	48.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	68.3%	—	11.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	68.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	67.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	51%	66.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	64.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	64.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗