KSFO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

57%

51%

38%

34%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.8¢Risks 49.80u

WN2NO 50.2¢Risks 50.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.20u · WN2 −50.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:19+00:00	33.5%	56.8%	36.8%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	33.5%	56.8%	36.8%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	33.5%	56.8%	36.8%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	33.5%	56.8%	36.8%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	33.5%	57.1%	38.9%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	33.5%	57.1%	38.9%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	33.5%	57.1%	38.9%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	33.5%	57.1%	38.9%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	24.4%	57.1%	38.9%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	24.4%	57.1%	38.9%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:54+00:00	24.4%	57.1%	38.9%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	24.4%	57.1%	38.9%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	24.4%	57.1%	33.7%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	24.4%	57.1%	33.7%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	24.4%	57.1%	33.7%	38.2%	35.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	34.8%	57.1%	33.7%	38.2%	51.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	34.8%	57.1%	33.7%	38.2%	51.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:45+00:00	34.8%	57.1%	33.7%	38.2%	51.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	34.8%	57.1%	33.7%	38.2%	51.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	34.8%	57.1%	33.7%	38.2%	51.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	34.8%	57.1%	34.4%	38.2%	51.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	34.8%	57.1%	34.4%	38.2%	51.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	34.8%	57.1%	34.4%	38.2%	51.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	65.2%	57.1%	34.4%	38.2%	51.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	65.2%	57.1%	34.4%	38.2%	51.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	68.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	67.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	51%	66.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	64.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	64.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗