KSFO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

60%

42%

40%

37%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 51.6¢Risks 51.55u

WN2NO 48.4¢Risks 48.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +48.45u · WN2 −48.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	23.1%	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	74.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	2.6%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	8.5%	10.2%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	11.9%	47.9%	3.8%	—	38.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	48.5%	54.4%	37.8%	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	48.5%	69.7%	20.0%	—	24.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	63.0%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	79.4%	58.7%	34.5%	—	24.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	54.9%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	89.2%	55.0%	23.8%	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	26.7%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	79.2%	59.6%	60.4%	—	24.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	72.1%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	77.7%	49.1%	68.6%	—	34.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	80.4%	53.8%	—	—	34.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	65.2%	57.7%	58.7%	18.3%	40.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	58.0%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	61.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	66%	70.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	68.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	65.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	66.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	65.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗