KSFO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

60%

42%

40%

37%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 51.6¢Risks 51.55u

WN2NO 48.4¢Risks 48.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +48.45u · WN2 −48.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:58+00:00	39.6%	57.9%	38.4%	72.8%	36.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	39.7%	57.9%	38.4%	72.7%	36.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:00	39.7%	60.1%	38.4%	72.7%	36.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	39.7%	60.1%	38.4%	72.7%	36.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	39.7%	60.1%	38.4%	72.7%	36.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	39.7%	60.1%	35.5%	72.7%	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	39.7%	60.1%	35.5%	72.7%	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	39.7%	60.1%	35.5%	72.7%	36.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	42.4%	60.1%	35.5%	72.7%	41.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:42+00:00	42.4%	60.1%	35.5%	72.7%	41.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	42.4%	60.1%	35.5%	72.7%	41.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	42.4%	60.1%	35.5%	72.7%	41.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	42.4%	60.1%	35.5%	66.2%	41.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	42.4%	60.1%	36.9%	66.2%	41.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	42.4%	60.1%	36.9%	66.2%	41.6%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	42.4%	60.1%	36.9%	66.2%	41.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	40.4%	60.1%	36.9%	66.2%	41.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	40.4%	60.1%	36.9%	66.2%	41.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	40.4%	60.1%	36.9%	66.2%	41.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	40.4%	60.1%	36.9%	66.2%	41.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	66%	70.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	68.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	65.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	66.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	65.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗