KSFO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

76%

76%

73%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 81.8¢Risks 40.90u

WN2NO 18.2¢Risks 9.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +9.10u · WN2 −9.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	65.2%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	10.2%	67.6%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	19.9%	77.0%	2.5%	—	31.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	47.8%	91.3%	37.1%	—	28.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	78.4%	85.8%	39.4%	—	22.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	89.6%	91.0%	73.9%	—	30.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	67.0%	91.3%	61.5%	—	42.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	13.2%	91.2%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	77.9%	90.6%	84.4%	24.1%	64.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	84.5%	—	—	76.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	90%	74.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	86%	72.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	70.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	70.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	69.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗