KSFO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

76%

76%

73%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 81.8¢Risks 40.90u

WN2NO 18.2¢Risks 9.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +9.10u · WN2 −9.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	68.6%	58.8%	58.7%	64.2%	93.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	68.6%	58.8%	58.7%	64.2%	93.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	68.6%	58.8%	58.7%	64.2%	93.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	68.6%	58.8%	66.9%	64.2%	93.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	68.6%	58.8%	66.9%	64.2%	93.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	68.6%	58.8%	66.9%	64.2%	93.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	63.5%	58.8%	66.9%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	63.5%	58.8%	66.9%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	63.5%	58.8%	66.9%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	63.5%	58.8%	66.9%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	63.5%	58.8%	66.9%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	63.5%	58.8%	66.9%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	63.5%	58.8%	66.9%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	63.5%	58.8%	66.9%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	75.4%	58.8%	66.9%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	75.4%	58.8%	66.9%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	75.4%	58.8%	66.9%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	75.4%	58.8%	66.9%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	75.4%	58.8%	66.9%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	75.4%	58.8%	69.5%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	75.4%	58.8%	69.5%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	75.4%	58.8%	69.5%	77.7%	78.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	75.8%	58.8%	69.5%	77.7%	85.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	75.8%	58.8%	69.5%	77.7%	85.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00	75.8%	58.8%	69.5%	77.7%	85.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	75.8%	58.8%	69.5%	77.7%	85.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00	75.8%	76.2%	73.2%	90.3%	85.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	75.8%	76.2%	73.2%	90.3%	85.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	75.8%	76.2%	73.2%	90.3%	85.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	75.8%	76.2%	73.2%	90.3%	85.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	75.8%	76.2%	73.2%	90.4%	85.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	75.8%	76.2%	73.2%	90.4%	85.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	90%	74.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	86%	72.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	70.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	70.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	69.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗