KSFO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 21 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

76%

66%

66%

63%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 76.4¢Risks 76.45u

WN2NO 23.6¢Risks 23.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.55u · WN2 −23.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	59.0%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	7.5%	61.3%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	15.3%	71.4%	1.7%	—	25.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	40.6%	88.0%	30.4%	—	22.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	72.4%	81.1%	32.3%	—	17.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	85.5%	87.3%	67.0%	—	23.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	59.1%	87.5%	53.3%	—	34.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	9.2%	87.2%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	70.9%	86.4%	78.6%	17.8%	56.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	78.5%	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	85.6%	74.1%	71.0%	—	61.8%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	80.4%	75.4%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	79.7%	—	80.3%	—	44.2%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	75.1%	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	72.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	90%	74.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	72.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	70.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	69.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	64%	71.0°F	6.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	69.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261024-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗