KSFO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

81%

68%

66%

64%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 75.1¢Risks 75.10u

WN2NO 24.9¢Risks 24.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +24.90u · WN2 −24.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:45:08+00:00	28.9%	54.7%	32.3%	17.6%	34.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:59+00:00	28.9%	54.7%	32.3%	17.6%	34.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	28.9%	54.7%	32.3%	17.6%	34.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	28.9%	54.7%	32.3%	17.6%	34.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	28.9%	54.7%	32.3%	17.6%	34.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	28.9%	44.6%	29.1%	17.6%	34.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	28.9%	44.6%	29.1%	17.6%	34.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	28.9%	44.6%	29.1%	17.6%	34.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	27.7%	44.6%	29.1%	17.6%	34.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	27.7%	44.6%	29.2%	17.6%	35.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	27.7%	45.8%	29.2%	17.6%	35.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	27.7%	45.8%	29.2%	17.6%	35.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	27.7%	45.8%	37.7%	17.6%	35.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	27.7%	45.8%	37.7%	17.6%	35.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	27.7%	45.8%	37.7%	17.6%	35.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	27.7%	45.8%	37.7%	17.6%	35.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	23.3%	45.8%	37.7%	40.8%	45.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	23.3%	45.8%	37.7%	40.8%	45.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	23.3%	45.8%	37.7%	40.8%	45.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	23.3%	45.8%	37.7%	40.8%	45.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	23.3%	45.8%	32.6%	40.8%	45.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	23.3%	45.8%	32.6%	40.8%	45.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	23.3%	45.8%	32.6%	40.8%	45.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	23.3%	45.8%	32.6%	40.8%	45.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	23.3%	45.8%	32.6%	40.8%	45.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	23.3%	45.8%	32.6%	40.8%	45.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	23.3%	45.8%	32.6%	40.8%	45.6%
2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:00	68.5%	65.5%	63.7%	86.5%	80.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	86%	74.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	81%	72.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	70.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	69.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	64%	71.0°F	6.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	69.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261024-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗