KSFO / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

19%

13%

13%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 38.0¢Risks 38.05u

WN2NO 61.9¢Risks 61.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +61.95u · WN2 −61.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	4.3%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	61.2%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	67.6%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	6.0%	54.9%	0.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.6%	59.4%	54.4%	0.1%	8.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	50.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	72%	80.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	70.0°F	9.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	19%	70.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	71.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	70.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	68.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261026-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗