KSFO / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

19%

13%

13%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 38.0¢Risks 38.05u

WN2NO 61.9¢Risks 61.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +61.95u · WN2 −61.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:50+00:00	3.1%	10.2%	4.5%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	3.1%	10.2%	4.5%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	3.1%	10.2%	4.5%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	3.1%	10.2%	4.5%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00	3.1%	10.2%	4.5%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00	3.1%	8.4%	2.3%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00	3.1%	8.4%	2.3%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	3.1%	8.4%	2.3%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	6.7%	8.4%	2.3%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	6.7%	8.4%	2.3%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	6.7%	9.1%	2.3%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	6.7%	9.1%	2.3%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	6.7%	9.1%	2.3%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	6.7%	9.1%	3.7%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	6.7%	9.1%	3.7%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	6.7%	9.1%	3.7%	14.6%	9.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	4.2%	9.1%	3.7%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	4.2%	9.1%	3.7%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	4.2%	9.1%	3.7%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	4.2%	9.1%	3.7%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	4.2%	9.1%	3.7%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	4.2%	9.2%	6.6%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	4.2%	9.2%	6.6%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	4.2%	9.2%	6.6%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	4.7%	9.2%	6.6%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	4.7%	9.2%	6.6%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	4.7%	9.2%	6.6%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-20T04:05:44+00:00	4.7%	9.2%	6.6%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	4.7%	9.2%	6.6%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	4.7%	9.2%	7.3%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	4.7%	9.2%	7.3%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	4.7%	9.2%	7.3%	72.2%	33.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	3.1%	9.2%	7.3%	72.2%	19.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	3.1%	9.2%	7.3%	72.2%	19.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00	3.1%	9.2%	7.3%	72.2%	19.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	3.1%	9.2%	7.3%	72.2%	19.2%
2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00	3.1%	14.3%	3.6%	72.3%	19.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	3.1%	14.3%	3.6%	72.3%	19.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	3.1%	14.3%	3.6%	72.3%	19.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	3.1%	14.3%	3.6%	72.3%	19.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	3.0%	14.3%	3.6%	72.3%	19.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	3.0%	14.3%	3.6%	72.3%	19.2%
2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:00	3.0%	13.4%	3.6%	72.3%	19.2%
2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00	3.0%	13.4%	3.6%	72.3%	19.2%
2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00	12.9%	13.4%	3.8%	72.3%	19.2%
2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00	12.9%	13.4%	3.8%	72.3%	19.2%
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00	12.9%	13.4%	3.8%	72.3%	19.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	72%	80.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	70.0°F	9.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	19%	70.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	71.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	70.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	68.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261026-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗