KSFO / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

21%

10%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 38.9¢Risks 38.90u

AIFSNO 61.1¢Risks 61.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +61.10u · AIFS −61.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	31.9%	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	3.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	37.6%	—	4.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	38.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	52.6%	—	2.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	68.5%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	13.9%	0.4%	9.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	54.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	75%	80.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	70.5°F	7.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	70.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	10%	63.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	67.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	65.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261027-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗