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KSFO / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
75%
EPS
21%
ICON
10%
WN2
4%
AIFS
3%
Consensus
10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 38.9¢Risks 38.90u
VS
AIFSNO 61.1¢Risks 61.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +61.10u · AIFS −61.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS HRES: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00IFS HRES: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS HRES: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:003.0%20.7%3.9%74.8%9.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:003.0%20.7%3.9%74.8%9.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:003.0%20.7%3.9%74.8%9.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:003.0%20.7%3.9%74.8%9.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:003.0%20.7%3.9%74.8%9.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES75%80.8°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble21%70.5°F7.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend12%70.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON10%63.5°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%67.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%65.7°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261027-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗