KSLC / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

23%

20%

19%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.5¢Risks 35.50u

ICONNO 64.5¢Risks 64.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.50u · ICON −64.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	2.7%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.6%	0.7%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	37.6%	3.3%	3.5%	—	19.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	21.5%	23.7%	5.3%	—	23.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	13.4%	35.8%	1.6%	—	16.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	5.7%	52.4%	23.6%	—	18.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	31.5%	20.7%	35.3%	—	16.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	8.5%	22.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	10.5%	19.6%	36.3%	—	16.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	57.1%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	48.2%	23.0%	64.4%	—	19.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	43.4%	16.5%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	59.6%	21.0%	26.3%	—	20.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	78.9%	21.1%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	60.2%	19.7%	73.2%	—	15.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	19.8%	15.0%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	14.9%	30.1%	73.6%	—	18.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	12.9%	23.1%	0.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	11.0%	61.5%	50.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	10.8%	35.9%	44.0%	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	10.0%	55.0%	46.3%	2.5%	11.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	7.2%	34.9%	47.4%	—	10.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	4.0%	30.7%	39.4%	0.5%	9.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	5.8%	27.6%	35.0%	—	9.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	7.8%	30.5%	34.5%	0.6%	12.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	4.4%	21.3%	23.6%	—	8.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	3.7%	13.4%	16.1%	1.6%	4.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	5.8%	6.3%	11.5%	—	5.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	65.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.4556
National Blend	58%	64.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3387
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.3181
WeatherNext 2	23%	61.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0511
IFS HRES	20%	60.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0380
IFS Ensemble	19%	59.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0357
ICON	4%	57.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0012

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261015-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗