KSLC / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

23%

20%

19%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.5¢Risks 35.50u

ICONNO 64.5¢Risks 64.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.50u · ICON −64.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:38+00:00	65.2%	25.6%	20.1%	27.1%	10.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	65.2%	25.6%	20.1%	27.1%	10.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	65.2%	25.6%	20.1%	27.1%	10.2%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	65.2%	25.6%	20.1%	27.1%	10.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	65.2%	25.6%	20.1%	27.1%	10.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	67.5%	25.6%	20.1%	27.1%	6.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	67.5%	25.6%	20.1%	27.1%	6.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	67.5%	25.6%	20.1%	27.1%	6.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	67.5%	25.6%	20.1%	27.1%	6.6%
2026-10-14T10:34:23+00:00	67.5%	25.6%	20.1%	20.3%	6.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00	67.5%	25.7%	28.0%	20.3%	6.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	67.5%	25.7%	28.0%	20.3%	6.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	67.5%	25.7%	28.0%	20.3%	6.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	66.6%	25.7%	28.0%	20.3%	6.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	66.6%	25.8%	28.0%	20.2%	6.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00	66.6%	18.9%	28.0%	20.2%	6.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	66.6%	18.9%	28.0%	20.2%	6.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	66.6%	18.9%	28.0%	19.5%	6.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	66.6%	18.9%	16.9%	19.5%	6.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	66.6%	18.9%	16.9%	19.5%	6.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	66.6%	18.9%	16.9%	19.5%	6.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	67.5%	18.9%	16.9%	18.7%	3.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	67.5%	18.9%	16.9%	18.7%	3.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	67.5%	18.9%	16.9%	18.7%	3.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	67.5%	18.9%	16.9%	18.7%	3.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	67.5%	18.9%	16.9%	18.7%	3.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	67.5%	18.9%	22.6%	19.5%	3.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	67.5%	18.9%	22.6%	19.5%	3.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	67.5%	18.9%	22.6%	19.5%	3.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	67.5%	18.9%	22.6%	19.5%	3.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	67.5%	18.9%	22.6%	19.5%	3.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	67.5%	18.9%	22.6%	19.5%	3.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	67.5%	18.9%	22.6%	19.5%	3.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	65.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.4556
National Blend	58%	64.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3387
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.3181
WeatherNext 2	23%	61.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0511
IFS HRES	20%	60.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0380
IFS Ensemble	19%	59.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0357
ICON	4%	57.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0012

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261015-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗