KSLC / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 13:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

48%

32%

28%

23%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.5¢Risks 51.50u

ICONNO 48.5¢Risks 48.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.50u · ICON −48.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	48.0%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.2%	26.5%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	28.1%	41.6%	0.0%	—	26.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	1.8%	23.7%	52.2%	—	35.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	49.2%	17.9%	54.6%	—	28.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	0.2%	51.6%	62.5%	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	70.7%	79.9%	42.5%	—	30.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	11.9%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	64.6%	66.2%	37.1%	—	31.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	54.5%	59.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	36.4%	60.0%	21.6%	—	34.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	34.3%	57.5%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	19.0%	42.3%	25.5%	—	33.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	24.1%	54.0%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	25.1%	42.8%	34.0%	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	23.6%	54.2%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	21.3%	69.9%	26.4%	—	29.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	25.8%	76.9%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	22.4%	75.8%	32.0%	9.0%	31.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	25.3%	76.6%	32.5%	—	31.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	25.6%	73.4%	32.0%	11.2%	30.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	25.9%	74.1%	30.2%	—	25.9%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	25.1%	69.3%	27.3%	12.0%	26.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	27.6%	70.0%	23.2%	—	27.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	44.2%	58.6%	23.4%	17.2%	29.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.6%	38.1%	56.0%	19.2%	—	29.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	34.6%	51.6%	23.8%	18.1%	31.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	37.0%	58.2%	29.5%	—	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	68.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0392
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1681
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1697
IFS HRES	48%	65.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.2714
IFS Ensemble	32%	63.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4651
WeatherNext 2	28%	64.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5227
ICON	23%	62.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5960

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261016-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗